Heavy Rain Moving In; Flooding a Real Problem This Week

We are seeing a huge batch of rain move in from the west this morning and that is the big boy we will have to deal with for today. Flash Flood Watches are up for portions of west TN and northern MS, we could see those translate to heavy rainfall for us too.

This rain will move in this morning and by afternoon, we could see a few isolated thunderstorms form but severe weather is not anticipated at this time.

Wednesday we see this front stall over our region and bring with it more chances at scattered rain and storms. We could see a few isolated severe storms as well, but widespread severe storm activity isn't expected.

Dry Today...Then The Floodgates Open

After having the boundary sit across the Middle TN area yesterday, that will push further south today and leave many of us dry (can't rule out an isolated shower or t'shower for the counties bordering AL though).

After today...we won't be seeing many days of sunshine or dryness. The QPF readings (which they measure how much rain is expected over an extended period) have all areas of Middle TN and SCK getting over 2.5" of rain this week and one model has it over 3" for all areas with isolated higher amounts.

I will point out that Tuesday will be a mostly dry day til the later part of it into the overnight hours. Then Wednesday through Friday will be when we see the heavy rain come in and stay in.

Today's Severe Risk; Weekend Rain

This morning outlook looks very similar to the one they issued yesterday at lunchtime. The threat is for all of SCK, but residents living north of I-40, especially on the TN/KY line, need to watch this severe day closely. Damaging winds will be the main threat, but large hail is also possible. The bigger tornado risk will be up way north of here where the surface low is at.

While severe weather may not be in the forecast, heavy and widespread rain is. We will have off and on rain chances starting today for the northern third and spreading more widespread as we head into the middle of next week.

A Tornado Watch...For One Cell?

This is the watch that the SPC issued this afternoon at 1:10 pm for portions of the Upper Midwest. Most watches last between 7-10 hours because of the anticipation of severe storms to develop in that watch region and they issue it about 1-2 hours before storms really get going to alert the public of the severe storm potential.

This watch was only issued for that one lone supercell you see on the radar map above in NE Iowa and only put into effect for 4 hours and 50 minutes. You may be thinking that maybe they issued it because they thought more super cellular storms may form out ahead of that one, but the watch discussion didn't mention that risk at all and, in fact, no new storms formed and that one cell ended up dissipating.

I have only been tracking storms for two years and forecasting for one, but I will admit that this is a first I have ever seen and don't believe a watch has ever been issued before because of one cell.

Tomorrow's Severe Risk: SCK

SPC has updated the outlook for tomorrow and all of SCK is included in this area. Damaging winds look to be the main threats in this area as the better instability values will be up into portions of the Great Lakes region around Cleveland, OH, where the surface low will be and the SPC outlook has this same approach in this outlook.

It is not out of the question that northern areas of Middle TN will be in this risk tomorrow, so keep alert of the latest!

Some Morning Showers...Any For Your Afternoon?

We have some showers affecting the northern most part of Middle TN and parts of SCK as well. These are generally light showers, but we can't rule out a strike of lightning. Most people will stay dry today even with these showers across the Northern third of Middle TN.

Once these showers move out, the question on everyone's mind is if we will have more showers/t'showers this afternoon. To answer your question...probably not. I am putting the chance at 20% this afternoon for the northern third and SCK, but that means for you even there is an 80% chance it won't do anything.

But not to worry, if you are one who likes rain or storms...late Saturday into Sunday will be the day for you. A front will actually stall over our region or just south of us and bring rain chances well into the middle of next week.

Current Radar View...Lunchtime Rain!

Widespread Rain This Morning; Very Low Severe Risk

We wake up this morning to a wide swath of rain over the mid-state where many areas are seeing rain totals around .25"-up to an inch is very beneficial and for mid summer...quite pleasant!

As mentioned in the title, we do stand a severe threat today, but you have a better chance of seeing President Obama today then you do a severe storm. If a severe storm does decide to go up and up...the main risk will be severe wind gusts and possibly hail the size of pennies, but the hail threat is going to be almost non-existent today.

With this rain and storm coverage around, this will keep our temps. down today. I'm only forecasting 78ºF for Nashville with lower temps. elsewhere. There is an outside chance that areas of far western Middle TN could see the rain and possibly even the clouds give way. If that happens, then they could get into the 80's for a high, but like I said...that is an outside chance and will more then likely not happen.

Record Breaking Days Over; Dry Weather Over Too

After this morning of waking up to temps. in the mid to upper 50's...we will have no more of these type days for the foreseen future. For mid summer, we won't see another temporary "break" like this for years and years to come I don't imagine.

Rain chances start to increase late today and especially across the overnight hours into your Wednesday where we are forecasting scattered to numerous showers and storms. Severe weather isn't forecasted, but a few cells could get strong and produce pea to dime size hail and winds upwards of 45-50 mph. It will be one of those "SPS" type days. (SPS is the abbreviation for 'Special Weather Statement')

Our high's should get out of the 70's for today, and with this system approaching us from the west...our humidity and DP will be climbing too, so it will be a bit more uncomfortable out their today.

Bastardi's Winter Outlook...Good News For Us!

If you are a winter lover...this is the map for you! Our weather pattern has shifted into an El Nino. The just of what that means is that we look to enter a more wetter and colder pattern for our winter season. I fully believe we will see an above average winter in terms of snowfall, but how much above is yet to be determined!

But to some of us, this cold pattern has already set in, it seems. Nashville and many other SE cities broke records yesterday for "min max" temp., and many overnight lows this morning have set records too. In the Smoky Mountains region, Mt. Leconte only topped out at 55ºF yesterday after starting at 35ºF! Newfound Gap started the day yesterday at 36ºF...for July! It is very possible this morning that Mt. Leconte hit the freezing point at some point during the night, which would be unheard of for mid summer.